Last month's report ended by calling October the first full month written at mortgage rates above 7%, and asked whether September's drop in sales was the rate shock arriving or passing through. Unlock MLS published the October numbers on November 11, 2026. The answer is that it is still arriving: sales fell again, and this time the metro median price fell with them.
How much did Austin home prices fall in October 2026?
The median sales price across the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro fell 6.9% year over year to $404,802, down from $421,000 in September. That is the second year-over-year decline in three months, after August's 6.4% drop. Unlock MLS attributed most of it to a shift in which homes sold, with lower-priced homes accounting for a greater share of sales, and said demand remained strongest between $200,000 and $299,000.
That matters for how to read the number. A median falls when cheaper homes make up more of the sales, even if no individual home lost value. Within the city of Austin, where the mix is different, the October median was $550,000, flat with a year earlier.
Did Austin home sales keep falling after September?
Yes, though by less. Closed sales fell 11.4% to 2,114, after September's 14.8% drop, and total dollar volume fell 14.5% to about $1.19 billion. Even so, Unlock MLS research advisor Vaike O'Grady noted that year-to-date sales are still up 2.5% on the same period of 2025, so the slowdown is a fall-season story rather than a full-year one.
Pending sales, the contracts that become next month's closings, fell 4.0% to 2,279, a deeper decline than September's 1.8%. Inside that number O'Grady pointed to a split: pending contracts on resale homes rose 6%. Her reading is that resale homes are becoming more competitive with new construction, where builders have leaned on price reductions and rate buydowns, and that the builders' advantage may be narrowing.
“Overall pendings fell 4%, but resale pendings rose 6%. Existing homes are winning back buyers from new construction.”
Is Austin now a buyer's market?
At the metro level it is at the line. Months of inventory rose to 6.2, up 0.4 from a year earlier and up from 5.4 in September, the fourth straight monthly increase since June's 4.4. Six months is the upper edge of the range generally read as balanced, so October is the first month in this series of reports to sit above it.
The supply rose because sales slowed, not because sellers rushed in. New listings fell 14.3% to 3,177 and active listings fell 2.2% to 13,196. Fewer sellers came to market than a year ago, but fewer buyers closed, so each home on the market represents more months of supply. Homes that did sell closed at an average of 92.2% of list price, against 91.6% a year earlier and 92.7% in September.
How did Travis, Williamson and Hays counties compare in October?
All three medians fell. Travis County's median fell 4.9% to $480,000 on 958 sales, down 13.2%, with 6.2 months of inventory. Williamson County's fell 9.2% to $375,250 on 720 sales, down 12.8%, and its pendings fell 9.1%. Hays County's fell 4.9% to $371,080 on 296 sales, but it was the one core county where pending sales rose, up 10.6% to 354, and it also carries the most supply of the three at 6.9 months.
September's report described the counties as split on price, with Hays up 10.8% on a small base. October reversed that: no core county posted a price gain.
Where are mortgage rates now?
Lower than when October's contracts were being written. Freddie Mac's weekly 30-year fixed average stood at 7.40% on October 15 and has fallen four weeks in a row since, to 7.11% on November 12, its lowest level in seven weeks. A year earlier it was 6.24%, so borrowing is still nearly a point more expensive than in fall 2025.
What does this mean if you are buying or selling right now?
For buyers, the metro has more months of supply than in any month these reports have covered, and rates have eased for four straight weeks. Unlock MLS and ABoR president John Crowe said softer prices and slower sales may give buyers more room to negotiate.
For sellers, Crowe's advice was to stay competitive on pricing and expectations. The rise in resale pendings is the encouraging part: buyers are still writing contracts on existing homes that are priced to the current month. A metro median also says little about any single street around Lake Travis, and the community pages on this site carry the local numbers.
The November report, due from Unlock MLS in mid-December, will cover the first month of falling rates since late summer. It will show whether the resale contracts signed in October carry through to closings, and whether supply holds above six months.
